Most of Midhurst's flood risk comes from rain rather than the Rother. Only about one postcode in a hundred sits in the river's highest-risk zone. About one in ten counts as high risk on at least one measure once surface water is included. There's no recorded flooding in the area. The town isn't a floodplain, but some individual streets still need checking.
The Environment Agency's river-and-sea flood zones cover very little of Midhurst. About 1% of the area's postcodes fall in Flood Zone 3, the highest-probability band, and under 1% fall in Flood Zone 2, the medium-probability band beyond it. The two zones don't overlap, so the smaller Zone 2 figure is not a mistake. The Rother runs along the east of the old town and a tributary runs to the south, so the homes in these zones sit where you'd expect, on the lower ground by the water.
Surface water is where most of the risk lies, and it follows a different logic. It builds up where rain can't drain away quickly enough, which can mean streets nowhere near the river. There's no separate surface-water figure for this area; it's included in the postcode measures below. For any particular house, the Environment Agency's surface-water map for that exact address is the thing to check.
Looking ahead, about 2% of postcodes fall within the flood zones once the Environment Agency allows for climate change. That's still a small share, but it's bigger than today's, and a mortgage runs long enough for the difference to matter.
For most homes here, flood risk shouldn't affect insurance. Where a property falls in a flood zone or a high surface-water area, insurers may charge more or add conditions. It's much better to find that out before you exchange contracts than after.
Taking every measure together, about 10% of postcodes rate high on at least one flood measure, about 11% rate medium and about 21% rate low. These bands include surface water alongside rivers and sea, so they overlap with the zone figures above rather than adding to them. The higher percentages come from the broader measure, not from a second, separate risk.
On defences, about 1% of postcodes fall inside the high-risk flood area modelled without defences, and about 1% fall inside it when defences are included. "Defended" only means a defence is present in the Environment Agency's model. It doesn't make a property safe, and it's no reason to skip the checks.
The nearest tide gauge, at Portsmouth, recorded sea level rising by about 2 millimetres a year over its 1962 to 2023 record. That's a measured past rate, not a forecast, and at this distance inland it matters less than what rain does to the Rother.
The area has no recorded history of flooding. That's reassuring, but it only means nothing has been recorded, not that no flood has ever happened. A buyer should treat it as a good sign rather than a guarantee.
Before you commit to a property, work through these steps:
- Put the exact address into the Environment Agency's long-term flood risk service, and check both rivers and surface water.
- Get an indicative buildings insurance quote before instructing a solicitor.
- Ask the seller directly whether the property has ever flooded or made a flood claim.
- Ask your surveyor to look at drainage and ground levels around the house, especially on lower ground near the Rother.
Midhurst's flood risk is middling rather than alarming. The town as a whole is dry, but a minority of addresses carry the risk, and a buyer needs to know whether theirs is one of them.