Yes, in patches, and mostly from rain that has nowhere to go rather than a river bursting its banks. About one postcode in five rates high on at least one flood measure. Only a sliver of the town is in the worst river zone. The worst flood in living memory came from overwhelmed drainage. The word "Marsh" in the name turns out to describe the plumbing.
The Environment Agency's river-and-sea mapping puts about 2% of Moreton's postcodes in flood zone 3, the highest-probability band. Another 14% fall in zone 2, the medium-probability fringe that lies beyond zone 3. Those two bands add up to a modest river footprint for a town in the Evenlode Valley. Rivers are the smaller part of the problem here.
Surface water is the larger part. The Environment Agency holds 27 recorded flood events for the area, and the most recent, in July 2007, is put down to local drainage and surface water. Floods blocked the High Street fairly regularly from the 1940s to the 1960s. Works on the ditches around the town and on the camber of the A44 coming down from Bourton-on-the-Hill fixed most of it, and 2007 was the last time the town flooded badly. The road was regraded once already because water ran down it into Moreton.
With the Environment Agency's climate allowance applied, about 14% of postcodes fall in the flood zones. That figure is the agency's modelled look ahead, and it puts the river picture close to where it is now. The real uncertainty is still how much rain falls and where it runs.
Insurers price individual addresses, and a recorded flood history is something they take into account. Expect a home in the low ground or one with a past claim to cost more to cover, and possibly to come with a higher excess, than a house on the slopes a few streets away.
Combine every measure, surface water included, and about 20% of Moreton's postcodes rate high on at least one of them, about 21% medium and about 39% low. Each postcode is counted against whichever of several flood measures rates it worst, which is why the high figure is far larger than the river zones alone. Ask the seller or their solicitor whether the house was affected in 2007 or has ever made a flood claim, because a regraded road does not change a house's past.
Counted in properties, the Environment Agency's rivers-and-sea assessment lists 577 properties in the postcodes that carry some risk. Of those, 45 are rated high, 34 medium and 56 low, and 29 of the high-risk properties are homes. Postcodes with no river or sea risk are left out of the list altogether, so the 577 is the exposed part of town and leaves out everything else.
The Environment Agency's modelled flood extents put about 1% of postcodes in the high-risk area with defences ignored, and about 1% with them included. "Defended" here only means a defence appears in the model. It says nothing about whether the water stays out of a particular kitchen. In practice the ditches decide that here, and nobody has given them a rating.
The nearest tide gauge is at Portsmouth, where the sea rose by about 2 millimetres a year between 1962 and 2023. Moreton lies close to the watershed between the Thames and the Severn, so rising seas are a problem for the gauge's town and somebody else's buyers. The water that matters here falls from the sky.
Flood risk is a real weakness in Moreton-in-Marsh. The risk is concentrated in particular streets, so most homes are fine and the ones in the wet spots have a flood history to show for it.