Manor Park has a real flood risk, but it is confined to part of the area. Nearly a fifth of the postcodes are in the highest-risk river flood zone. The flood model shows no defences protecting them. Allowing for a wetter climate, the share grows to about a quarter. Most of Manor Park stays dry, but the risky part is large enough that it can't be dismissed as a few unlucky streets.
On the Environment Agency's river-and-sea flood map, about 18% of Manor Park's postcodes are in Flood Zone 3, the band with the highest chance of flooding from a river or the sea. Another 1% are in Flood Zone 2, the medium-probability strip just beyond it. Zone 2 is the smaller figure here because the two zones don't overlap: the land at the edge of the high-risk band is thin before the ground rises. The Alders Brook, the minor river that marks part of the boundary between Newham and Redbridge, is a reminder that small rivers still have floodplains.
Flooding from heavy rain running off roofs and roads is measured differently, and Manor Park has no separate surface-water figure. Surface water is counted in the postcode ratings further down. With terraces built close together and paving on most surfaces, a downpour can flood a street that is nowhere near the river map.
With climate change allowed for, the Environment Agency's projected flood zone takes in about 26% of the area's postcodes. That is a modelled view of a wetter future and an estimate, but it covers more of Manor Park than today's map does.
For insurance, a postcode in Flood Zone 3 usually means more questions from the insurer, and it can mean a higher premium or a larger excess. Homes on the same road can get quite different quotes, because insurers price each property's own position. Put the exact address into the Environment Agency's long-term flood risk service and get an indicative insurance quote early, while walking away still costs nothing.
The postcode ratings combine several measures, and they give a softer picture. Rating each postcode on any of the flood measures, surface water included, about 4% of Manor Park's postcodes come out at high risk on at least one of them, 9% at medium and 55% at low. A low rating on one measure tells you nothing about the others, so more than half the area carries some level of flood flag.
Defences make the biggest difference. In the Environment Agency's modelled flood extents, about 18% of postcodes are in the high-probability extent with no defence present, and none are in the high-probability extent with a defence present. Being "defended" in the model would only mean that some structure exists, not that a home is safe. Even so, the model records no defence at all for the high-risk part of Manor Park.
The nearest tide gauge with a long record is at Dover, where sea level rose by about 2.2 millimetres a year between 1961 and 2010. That is the rate measured at Dover over those years. It is not a prediction for east London.
Most of Manor Park is fine, but the area as a whole comes out below average for flooding. In the high-risk part, the model records no defences at all.