Mostly no, with coastal asterisks. Almost no village postcode sits inside the highest river-and-sea flood zone. Only about three percent show any high surface-water risk. The historic flood record is empty. What risk there is hugs the coastal edge, not the village green.
For river and sea flooding, the Environment Agency zone shares are small enough to round to almost nothing. Less than half a percent of the village sits in flood zone 2, which is the lower-probability category. Flood zone 3, the higher-probability one, is essentially zero. That means the formal river-and-sea flood map covers a sliver at the coastal end and leaves the inland village alone. The minimum distance from any village postcode to the open coast is about 580 metres, with the typical distance closer to 1.7 kilometres, so flood exposure on the river-and-sea map is a Hill Head-facing concern rather than a village-wide one.
Surface-water flooding tells a different story, in the sense that it is the kind of flooding that catches an inland Hampshire village rather than a coastal one. About three percent of village postcodes show any high surface-water risk, around eight percent show any medium, and roughly a quarter show any low. Those are the postcodes where rain pools faster than the drains clear, and where a heavy summer downpour matters more than the tide. The numbers are small but not trivial. Any buyer in a postcode that scores high on surface water should ask the seller for a recent search and walk the street after a downpour.
Looking forward, the climate-adjusted flood zone covers roughly one percent of the village. That is the figure that builds in projected sea level rise and revised rainfall patterns, and it sits only fractionally above the present-day flood-zone figure. Sea level at the nearest tide gauge, Portsmouth, has been rising at roughly two millimetres a year over the long-run record back to the 1960s. The shoreline management policy for the coastal frontage is to hold the line, which is the planner's commitment to defend rather than retreat. The projection is not zero, but it is not a transformation either.
For insurance, the practical translation is that most Stubbington homes will price as standard residential risk. Properties in the small set of high-surface-water postcodes, or in the few coastal-fringe postcodes touching flood zone 2, may face higher premiums or specific exclusions, and lenders may ask for a flood report before completion. The Flood Re scheme provides a backstop for homes built before 2009, although it does not cover homes built since then. The honest move for a buyer in a borderline postcode is to get a quote before exchange, not after.
The flood verdict lands above average for safety. Most of the village stays out of the formal flood zones, the historic record is empty, and the climate-adjusted future is barely a degree above the present. The risk that exists is sharp, small, and easy to identify before you buy.