Yes. Lee carries real flood risk, and most of it comes from rain, not the river. About one postcode in twenty falls in the highest-risk river zone. Once surface water is counted, more than a quarter rate high on at least one flood measure. About three hundred properties are at high risk from rivers alone. The river map on its own makes Lee look drier than it is.
The Environment Agency's river-and-sea flood zones put about 5% of Lee's postcodes in zone 3, the highest-probability band, and about 4% in zone 2, the medium-probability band that runs outside it. The two bands do not overlap, so a smaller zone 2 share is no contradiction. The river in question is the Quaggy, which once formed much of the parish boundary and is now almost completely hidden at Lee Bridge. The Environment Agency has 28 recorded flood events for the area. The latest was in September 1968, when the main river overflowed its channel with no raised defences in place. Burying a river under a road does not make it go away.
Surface water is a different risk. It comes from heavy rain the drains cannot clear, and it can collect on streets well away from any river. The river zones ignore it entirely, so a house can be outside zone 2 and zone 3 and still sit on a road where the rain pools.
The Environment Agency's climate-adjusted zone, which models the river and sea extent with an allowance for future change, covers just under 4% of Lee's postcodes. It is a modelled projection. Nobody has measured it yet.
For insurance, the postcode measure below is the one to watch, because insurers price on more than the river zones. A property in a high-risk band on any measure can face higher premiums or a larger excess, and recorded flooding at the address matters more than either. Look up the exact address on the Environment Agency's long-term flood risk service, which gives river, sea and surface water separately, and ask the seller directly whether the property has ever flooded or made a claim.
On the wider postcode measure, which counts a postcode as high if it rates high on any one of several indicators, surface water included, about 26% of Lee's postcodes rate high, 31% medium and 46% low. Those bands overlap because one postcode can rate differently on different indicators, so the shares add up to more than the whole. The jump from one postcode in twenty in the river zones to one in four on this measure is the rain.
Counted as properties, not postcodes, the Environment Agency's rivers-and-sea mapping lists 2,295 properties across the 79 postcodes in Lee that carry some river or sea risk. Of those, 303 are at high risk, 514 at medium, 266 at low and 221 at very low, and 233 of the high-risk properties are homes. Postcodes with no river or sea risk do not appear in this count at all.
The Environment Agency's modelled flood extents put about 8% of Lee's postcodes in the high-probability area with no defences assumed, and just under 8% with defences included. A defence that appears in the model shrinks that figure only slightly, and appearing in a model is not the same as keeping water out of a kitchen.
The nearest tide gauge in this set is at Portsmouth, where sea level rose by about 2 millimetres a year across its record from 1962 to 2023. That is the rate measured at that gauge over those years, and Lee's risk comes from the Quaggy and the rain far more than from the coast.
Flood is a real weakness in Lee. The river zones look modest, and the rain is what pushes the risk up.