Yes, part of Charfield is at real risk, and the affected part is bigger than the river map alone suggests. Only a small slice of the village lies in the highest-risk river zone. Once rainwater is counted as well, nearer three in ten postcodes flag high on at least one measure. The modelled defences do not shrink the high-risk area at all. The sea is the least of its worries.
On the Environment Agency's river-and-sea flood zones, about 5% of Charfield's postcodes fall in Flood Zone 3, the band with the highest chance of flooding, and none fall in Flood Zone 2, the medium-probability fringe beyond it. The two zones do not overlap, so the 5% is the whole of the river-and-sea exposure on that map. It follows the Little Avon River, which is a modest stream for most of the year and the main reason a handful of streets get a different conversation with their insurer.
Surface water is the risk the river zones leave out: heavy rain that falls faster than the ground and drains can take it, on streets that may be nowhere near the river. It has no separate count for Charfield and is folded into the wider postcode indicators below. That is the measure that moves the village from a small problem to a noticeable one.
Looking ahead, the Environment Agency's climate-adjusted flood zone covers about 17% of Charfield's postcodes. That is the modelled extent once a wetter future is allowed for, and it reaches well past today's 5%.
For insurance, the line that matters is which side of those boundaries a house falls on. Homes inside the high-risk extents can expect closer questions, possibly higher premiums and excesses, and an underwriter who reads the postcode before anything else in the file. Homes on higher ground nearby will often be quoted as if the river were somewhere else entirely. The one check worth making is to get an indicative buildings insurance quote on the exact address early, while walking away still costs nothing.
On the postcode indicators, which count a postcode if it rates on any of several measures, surface water included, about 29% of Charfield's postcodes are high on at least one, 29% medium on at least one, and 48% low on at least one. A single postcode can appear in more than one of those groups, so they do not add up to a whole.
Counted by property, the Environment Agency's rivers-and-sea mapping lists 387 properties across the postcodes that carry any risk at all. Of those, 32 are at high risk, 21 of them homes, 28 at medium risk and 57 at low risk. Postcodes with no river or sea risk do not appear in that count at all.
Defences make no difference to the size of the problem on the Environment Agency's modelling. About 16% of postcodes fall in the high-probability extent with defences left out, and the same 16% fall in it with defences included. "Defended" on that map only means a defence exists in the model. It has never meant the water has agreed to stay out.
Charfield is about 9.6 kilometres from the coast at its typical postcode, and the shoreline management plan for that stretch sets hold the line as the policy for the next 20, 50 and 100 years. Hold the line is a stated intention to keep existing defences in place, dependent on funding nobody has yet committed, and it describes the plan for each period. It does not describe what stands on the shore today.
The nearest tide gauge, at Portsmouth, recorded sea level rising by about 2 millimetres a year between 1962 and 2023. That is the rate the gauge measured over those years, from a long way down the coast, and the village's floods come from rain and rivers.
On flood, Charfield is poor. Most homes are dry, but the high-risk streets are numerous enough, and the modelled defences do so little, that this is the topic where the village gives a buyer the most homework.